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When
you bet on a football or basketball game, you'll typically be
playing against a "pointspread." Team A will be
favored by 7 points over Team B for example. You'll either take
Team A to win by more than 7, or Team B to lose by less than
7¡or to win the game outright. It's important to remember that
the pointspread DOES NOT represent a prediction on the game from
the sports book or casino¡but rather, a number that it
believes will split the money evenly to reduce their risk.
You see¡when you bet a straight play like this, you have to
risk your money in an 11/10 ratio (that extra 10% is called the
vigorish, or the "vig" or "juice" in slang).
You risk $11 to win $10¡or $110 to win $100¡or $55 to win
50, etc‿Ideally from the sports book perspective¡half
the wagerers will take one team in a game, half will take the
other¡then the sports book will make its profit from the
losing side. Imagine that wagerers as a group risked $55,000 to
win $50,000 on Team A, and $55,000 to win $50,000 on Team B. It
doesn't matter who wins¡the sports book will pocket $5,000 in
profit¡and use the other $50,000 from the losers to pay off
the winners.
All of this is important to you, because it means that SPORTS
WAGERING IS THE BEST MONEY MAKING PROPOSITION IN ALL OF WAGERING
FOR SMART PLAYERS!
Think about it, the laws of probability rule all the other
casino games. The odds concerning the next card that comes up in
blackjack or poker, where the ball's going to land in roulette,
what number is about to be rolled in craps, etc‿The
casinos know the laws¡and have adjusted their payoffs
accordingly. For the most part, you have to get lucky to win.
You can't PURPOSELY beat roulette any more than you can
purposely hit the jackpot at a slot machine.
BUT, YOU CAN, THROUGH HARD WORK, RESEARCH, AND INTELLIGENCE BEAT
SPORTS POINTSPREADS!
Pointspreads are based on perceptions of the wagering public.
Because the wagering public isn't perfect in its
analysis¡there are holes that can be exploited each and every
day. There are 7-point favorites who should be 10-12 point
favorites¡there are underdogs who have matchup advantages that
will yield a straight up victory¡there are good teams about to
have an off-day, and bad teams who play over their heads in
certain scenarios. For smart handicappers, THE MONEY IS THERE
FOR THE TAKING!
Football and Basketball are similar in that they use
pointspreads. Baseball generally uses a money line. Hockey uses
either a "puck" line (similar to a pointspread but
based on goals), or a money line like baseball.
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