are many special systems for picking a football winner and there
seems to be a thousand different "Cheat Sheets" out
there. The best system is common sense and betting with a well
laid out plan.
Can 3 points be a better line than 9 points? You bet!
scoring is a "numbers game" ‿points are added to
the score in units of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8. With this in mind, its
important to realize that CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the
bookmaker ARE MORE IMPORTANT than others. Because a relatively
high percentage of games end with a margin of victory in
increments of these numbers, it's imperative that attention be
paid to the most meaningful point spreads.
over half of all pro football games end with one of ten possible
differences in the score: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17
(not necessarily in that order!)
the "Half-Point" move off any of these numbers can
represent a significant betting opportunity.
an eye out for Point Spreads of 3!
For example, a line of +3.5 is a BARGAIN compared to that same
underdog at +3 ‿this indicates that the favored team must
now score a touchdown as opposed to a field goal in order to win
the game. So, in essence, a line move to +3.5 can be considered
much more significant that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5.
by the same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5
indicates a risky bet on the underdog. These half-point line
changes from a point spread of 3 can be much more significant than
instance, a line change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth
noticing. Because football games do not usually end with a margin
of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5 doesn't make much
difference. When a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5 points,
they almost always cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.
To gamble on football, it's important to realize that certain
scores are more likely to occur than other scores. Would you
believe that only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of
all NFL football scores!
true! When predicting final football scores, you must take into
account these REAL NUMBERS ‿br> 7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17,
20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31
numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are
the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final
outcome. Always adjust your predictions accordingly.
other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a
score of 30-26 ‿this score probably won't happen! Adjust
your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring
‿say, 31-24 or 28-27. Now you are dealing with a point
spread worthy of consideration.