Baseball
Gambling Tips
Look
for value in the underdog
The
best baseball teams lose at least sixty games a year and the worst
teams win close to that same number. The rest of the league
falls somewhere in between. Consider that the more favorites
you bet, the higher the percentage of wins you'll need to break
even. For example, if your average bet is a 150
favorite you¡¯ll need to hit 60% winners just to break even.
At 170, that number increases to 63% and so on.
Now
consider the opposite. If your average bet is a +120
underdog, your break-even percentage drops to approximately 45.5%.
At +140, its down to just over 42% and the higher you go the lower
the breakeven percentage. Keeping in mind that even the
poorest baseball teams seldom win fewer than 37% of their games,
it is apparent that looking for opportunities to bet on underdogs
is essential to profitable baseball wagering.
Set
a limit for betting on favorites
While
most successful baseball bettors look to play underdogs first,
favorites can frequently present good value as well. Often
times, one will find a top team playing on the road as a minor
favorite or other situations will present themselves where small
favorites are a good play. To bet baseball successfully, you
should implement a strict limit on how much you¡¯ll lay on a
favorite, say -150 or lower. Once you establish your ¡°cut
off‿for wagering favorites, never wager more than that,
regardless of the circumstance or situation.
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¡¡
Don¡¯t
place too much stock in starting pitchers
Too
many sports handicappers place too much emphasis on the starting
pitcher. It¡¯s understandable, of course, since the
bookmakers list the starting pitcher when setting the line for
each game. If you pay any attention to baseball, however,
you¡¯ll know that the quality of starting pitching has reached a
state of equality, if not mediocrity. Sure, there are a
small number of elite pitchers, but all others are a cut below
these few. And since you¡¯ll never get these guys anywhere near
your favorite cut off point, don¡¯t worry about them.
It's
an obvious fact that baseball is a game of streaks, and nowhere is
this more evident than in pitching. If a starter is
demonstrating particularly good or particularly bad recent form,
it might not be compensated for in the line and there may be value
in playing on (or against) the starter in question. Overall,
however, starting pitching receives way too much emphasis when
evaluating baseball from a wagering standpoint.
Understand
that baseball is a game of streaks
This
is no secret, of course, but it is something to be aware of when
betting on baseball. No matter what else you find relevant
about a game, you should think twice about betting against a team
that has won three or more games in a row or on a team that has
lost three or more games in a row. This may sound
superstitious, but it's a valuable rule to follow. You'll
always be better off in the long run by not going against a
winning or losing streak the majority of the time.
Home
field advantage just doesn't matter
Of
all major sports, there may be less advantage to playing at home
in baseball than in any other. This is especially true
during the long regular season. Granted there are teams that
do better in certain ballparks than others, but this is more a
function of the design of the ballpark and the personnel of the
team than any home field advantage. Some parks are clearly
¡°pitcher's parks‿or ¡°hitter's parks‿ but it works
both ways - the opposing pitchers and hitters often have the same
advantage or disadvantage as the home team¡¯s players.
Furthermore, bad teams are frequently overvalued at home, which
results in good value on the visitor. Over the course of
season, most teams will probably do better at home than on the
road but the higher prices you¡¯ll have to pay will negate this
fact. More often than not, ¡°home field
advantage‿shouldn¡¯t be a consideration in handicapping a
game.
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